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Vaccination acceleration promotes the global economic recovery process better than expected

Vaccination acceleration promotes the global economic recovery process better than expected

  On January 26, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the "World Economic Outlook Report" update, it is expected that the global economic growth rate this year is more than a percentage point than the forecast last year, and it is expected to grow in 2022. Global economic growth.

  Each economy resuscitation is accelerating IMF. The overall economic growth momentum in each region in the second half of 2020 is stronger than expected, 2020 global economic or contraction%, which is more than a percentage point. In the future, the vaccination promotion of vaccines is expected to further boost the global economy, and the prospects of each economies have mainly dependent on factors such as medical intervention levels and policies support effectiveness.

  IMF believes that there will be huge differences in the resumption of economies.

Developed economies are greater due to policy support, which can get vaccines faster, and their recovery is expected to speed up.

  Specifically, developed economies will grow by this year, of which the US growth%, the overall growth of the euro zone, the growth% of Japan, and the United Kingdom. Emerging market economies and developing countries will grow by.

  Global trade is expected to recover synchronous recovery. Imf expects global trade in 2021 to grow, growth in 2022, but service trade recovery will be slower than trade. In terms of monetary policy, IMF predicts that the world’s major central bank will maintain current interest rate policies until the end of 2022, the financial situation of developed economies will be substantially maintained at the current level, while the financial conditions of emerging market economies and developing countries will gradually improve. With the gradual recovery of the global economy, commodity prices will also rise, and it is estimated that 2021 international oil prices will rise 20% lower than 2020 low.

Other commodity prices are expected to rise, especially metal prices will rise sharply in 2021.

  China’s economy to implant the power "China’s economic economy is restored to the expected level before the epidemic in the fourth quarter of 2020, leading the major economies.

Effective epidemic prevention and control measures, strong public investment, and central bank’s liquidity support provides strong support for China’s economic achievement. "IMF pointed out in its report. The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2020, China GDP has exceeded 1 trillion yuan in RMB. In the context of the global economy," China’s economy continued Recovery boosted global confidence and injected China’s driving force.

  "China can reduce the local dissemination of the virus to a very low level through effective prevention and control measures.

"The IMF research department, Mahal Naba believes that China has provided experience in restoring the economy for other economies, and economic activity is difficult to recover if there is no such effective prevention and control and help measures. normal level.

For example, the Chinese government has introduced measures to help affected enterprises and families, providing support credit, ensuring their cash flow, ensuring that economic activities can recover quickly. In supporting infrastructure, China has also taken a broader measures to strengthen economic recovery after the epidemic. Mahal Naba said that China’s economic growth will pay more attention to the driving drive from investment driving. According to the latest data released by the United Nations Trade and Development Conference, 2020 global foreign direct investment (FDI) has declined sharply, but China FDI has increased by $ 163 billion, which has become the world’s largest foreign capital into the country. Mahal Naba believes that foreign investment rebounds exceeded expectations, showing China’s great progress in attracting foreign investment. China is currently promoting economic structure transformation, further expanding and opening up, encouraging more foreign investments, which will help China’s economic re-balance, lay the foundation for achieving sustainable growth. The prospects of recovery still uncertainty IMF said that the prospect of the global economic recovery is still full of high uncertainty.

Some countries have taken a blockade measure since the emergence of a new round of epidemic and variant viruses.

In addition, the imbalance of vaccine distribution, giving a shadow of the global economic recovery.

  "The world economic recovery process is largely dependent on the extent of vaccine promotion speed and virus control in the next few months, and economic policy support is also critical.

"Mahal Naba said.

  IMF Chief Economist Jigta Gotta believes that accelerates vaccination, increases medical intervention, and additional policy support can improve and boost economy, while vaccine promotion, viral mutation and policy support will result The prospect of recovery is deteriorating. IMF recommends that governments continue to provide policy support until economic stability, ensuring financial stability, maintaining loose monetary policy, while reminding financial environments may increase risks, so that some economies are in debt crisis. IMF called on the international community to strengthen international cooperation, jointly control the epidemic, and work together to promote the recovery of the world economy.

"The international community must quickly take action to ensure the rapid and widely gain of vaccines and treatments in the world. Get universal distribution. Low-income national debt levels have further rising during the epidemic, and the international community needs to continue to work closely to ensure that these countries can achieve adequate international liquidity. "In the face of unpreceden global challenges, the international community must take immediate action to ensure full control of the epidemic, bridge the differences between countries and their internal differences, and promote the construction of a more prosperous, green and inclusive future." Gitta Gotta Express. (Editor: Li Yilin (intern), Li Dong) Share let more people see the recommended reading.